Whither the Republican Party? (Part I of II)

The sun has risen on the Democratic Party and there is scant evidence that it intends to set anytime soon.

Yet there is still growing sentiment among conservative faithful that a renaissance is brewing in the bowels of the Republican Party, which after its November 4th bludgeoning finds itself thrust once more upon the precipice of history.

That the rift between fiscal an social conservatives has ruptured into bursting chasm in the belly of the Republican coalition is at this point really a matter of fact. One of the desultory solutions du jour among many conservative commentators is to reorient the party around the "Reagan-myth" of small government, lower taxes, and folksy charm. The other is apparently to douse the thankfuly simmering flames of the Culture War with gasoline, reigniting and reinspring the now-disillusioned religious-right "Rove majority."

Each of these planks has its own natural leaders and prospetive future nominees (all of whom, oddly, are young and Governors): the religious Rove plank portends the candidacy of Governors Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. The Reagan-myth cohort sports Governors Tim Pawlenty and, most of all, Bobby Jindal.

(Note: I predict that Mitt Romney's stale, slimey and ultimately failed candidacy in 2008 has killed his prospects for 2012 and beyond. I further doubt he has either the tools or political capital to lead a tattered GOP, and I don't consider him a threat to the Democratic majority.)

While both scenarios are equally likely, only the latter seems to have a chance of dethroning the new-Democrat coalition that includes hispanics, young people, educated people, blacks, and an increasing number of working-class white men, all of whom appear primed to turn out in droves for election cycles to come.

For that reason, I will be turning my attention to the candidacy's of Pawlenty and Jindal in the next portion of this post.

I will there argue that, while both men appear to represent an electable "middle," both men are, or will necessaraily become (as John McCain did), cogs in Rove machine.

My point is thus that the future of the Republican party is not about finding a leader to rally the pack. Rather, the electability of the GOP depends upon deconstructing the Rove machine and beginning a holistic restructuring of the party's strategic objectives and tactical operations to support a return to the Reagan-myth.

Strategically, religiousity, jingoism, and fear will need to give way to tax reform, collective security, and fixing (if perhaps needing to first acknowledge the permanence of) the social saftey-net.

Tactically, campaigns will need to invest more in ground operations, grass-roots mobilization, and better integration of the internet and blogosphere to e-campaign.

Once these are done--and I anticipate it will take quite some time--then, and only then, can the GOP move forward. At that point, it will need to find its leaders.

In the next section, I will explain why Bobby Jindal is not that leader.